WHAT IS THE FUTURE OF VALUE-BASED CARE?

Commercial risk will be a critical catalyst of progress – it’s complicated, but is it possible? We think so.

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Research

16 Things CEOs Need to Know in 2022

The past two years have left an indelible mark on the world, as well as on the health care industry. And as the Covid-19 pandemic continues to wear on, the health care industry has found itself in an unprecedented state of flux. Long-standing assumptions about utilization, demand, consumer preference, and the regulatory landscape have all been challenged. As a result, today’s health care leaders face many strategic decisions that will have enduring and far-reaching implications for the future of this industry, even after the acute phase of the crisis has waned.

As pivotal as the past two years have been, we believe the coming year will determine the future trajectory of this industry. What will the future of the virtual care landscape—and the broader home-based care market—look like? Will Covid-19 be a turning point for risk-based payment and, if so, in which direction? Will the health care industry rise to the challenge of addressing persistent disparities in health outcomes?

This briefing examines which structural shifts are most important, how those shifts might play out, what steps leaders can take to inflect the direction and pace of change, and how the Covid-19 crisis has shifted the dynamics of power and influence across the industry.

Download the PDF below to learn the top 16 insights about the state of the health care industry today.

Preview the insights

Part 1 | The Pandemic's Impact: The Effect of Covid-19 on Finances, Coverage, and Utilization

Insight #1

National health plans are deploying outsized gains achieved amid the pandemic to fuel strategic consolidation and diversification. Keep reading on pg. 6

Insight #2

With the hospital sector experiencing significant levels of divergence in financial performance, further consolidation is likely on the horizon. Keep reading on pg. 8

Insight #3

The primary threat to the physician landscape is not financial sustainability, it’s workforce sustainability. Keep reading on pg. 10

Insight #4

Suppliers have largely seen financial performance and political scrutiny return to pre-pandemic norms—except for digital health companies, which are gaining new levels of influence. Keep reading on pg. 12

Insight #5

The uninsured rate did not increase significantly due to Covid-19, but further national coverage expansion is unlikely. Keep reading on pg. 14

Insight #6

Concerned about impending spikes in health spending, employers are doubling down on steerage as their preeminent cost-control strategy. Keep reading on pg. 16

Insight #7

Buoyed by federal assistance and stronger-than-expected tax revenues, states have shifted their focus to longer-term ambitions like health equity. Keep reading on pg. 18

Insight #8

As Medicare insolvency inches closer, painful cost-cutting measures aimed at plans and providers are likely within the next few years. Keep reading on pg. 20

Insight #9

Covid-19 is unlikely to prompt big shifts in aggregate demand, but there will be meaningful changes to individual service lines and sites of care, particularly among highly profitable procedures. Keep reading on pg. 22

Part 2 | An Industry at the Crossroads: How Today’s Decisions Will Shape the Future of Health Care

Insight #10

A new equilibrium for the health care industry will emerge in the coming years— but the window of opportunity to shape that future will be brief. Keep reading on pg. 24

Insight #11

Health equity is an increasingly common mission imperative, but the industry will make more meaningful progress if leaders can solidify it as a business imperative. Keep reading on pg. 26

Insight #12

How providers and plans respond to new price transparency requirements will determine whether these policies reinforce existing market structures or break them. Keep reading on pg. 28

Insight #13

Despite renewed and widespread interest in value-based payment, uptake is more likely among physicians than other provider groups such as health systems. it’s workforce sustainability. Keep reading on pg. 30

Insight #14

Whether physicians continue to migrate to health systems or instead align with alternate partners will depend on which suitors can look beyond the binary choice of employment or independence. Keep reading on pg. 32

Insight #15

The future of virtual care is not merely a question of how much, but of whom: third parties are working aggressively to chip away at the lead local providers have gained. Keep reading on pg. 34

Insight #16

Unless leaders can balance speed-to-market with intentionality, the burgeoning home-based care market will exacerbate existing fragmentation, labor, and equity challenges. Keep reading on pg. 36

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